Questions I

How much has the valuation of Google grown?

Answer: 24-fold since 2004. That’s roughly 4.5 doublings in 15 years.


  • Observe
  • Orient
  • Decide
  • Act

I find this to be a useful way to think about automation and human ability to react to new developments

Neural nets are good at observing and, in the context of deep RL an relatively simple games, quite good at deciding and acting.

Orienting in the broader context of observations and decisions seem less advanced. So that may be the niche which humans occupy the longest.

Headspace already has ads in London underground. How many users does Headspace have in 2019?

My guess is: (300,000; 5M), median guess around 1M.

And I’m totally wrong.

Almost exactly a year ago: Headspace currently has more more than 31 million users on its platform and more than 1 million premium members

I keep my fingers crossed for further growth. Winning the war for attention seems almost extraordinarily hard, so any tech company on the right side needs support and applause.

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